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Losing streak calculator

Even a good strategy has long losing runs. Know how long before one starts.

How it works

This is exact probability, not a simulation: the chance that somewhere in your trades there is at least one run of that many losses in a row, if every trade has the same win rate and doesn't depend on the last one. "Usually see" is the middle case: half the time the longest run is this long or longer.

The cost of a run assumes you risk the same % of your balance at the time on each trade.

Why it matters

A 55% win rate still loses five in a row more often than not over 100 trades. If your plan, your nerves or a prop firm's daily limit can't take the usual losing run, the strategy will fail for reasons that have nothing to do with its edge.

Real trades are messier: losses can cluster when the market changes. Check a real record's runs on NoCap Edge, and see revenge trading for what tilt does after a run.

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Education, not financial advice. Simple models with the assumptions shown; real trading has costs, gaps and rules these leave out. Nothing you type here leaves your browser.

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